Political uncertainty,risk of Frexit and European sovereign spreads

Using data from a prediction market (crowd-based forecasts), we build a daily measure capturing the risk of Frexit related to the 2017 French presidential elections. We study how unexpected changes in this new measure of political uncertainty in France affect European sovereign spreads vis-à-vis Germany. We show that our uncertainty proxy drives not only the French sovereign spread but also the spreads of those EU countries deemed the most vulnerable to the risk of desegregation of the Euro Zone. These results suggest that specific political uncertainty affects short-term investor’s expectations and may outweigh other economic determinants of sovereign spreads shortly prior to high stake elections     

Smooth breaks and nonlinear mean reversion in real interest parity: Evidence from East Asian countries

This study aims to explore the empirical validity of the real interest rate parity (RIP) hypothesis for East Asian countries using Japan as the base country. To this end, we employ the recently proposed unit root tests of Christopoulos and Leon-Ledesma that account for both multiple smooth structural breaks of unknown form and nonlinear mean reversion in the series. Our empirical results uncover overwhelming evidences in favor of the RIP hypothesis for the whole countries in our sample. More specifically, through a Fourier approximation, it is observed that all real interest rate differentials display a mean-reverting behavior around an infrequently smooth-breaking mean, with the breaks being in accordance with the financial reforms and economic crises witnessed by the countries. Moreover, the degree of mean reversion appears to vary nonlinearly with the size of real interest rate appreciations and depreciations.     

Short interest and stock price crash risk

Using a large sample of U.S. public firms, we find robust evidence that short interest is positively related to one-year ahead stock price crash risk. The evidence is consistent with the view that short sellers are able to detect bad news hoarding by managers. Additional findings show that the positive relation between short interest and future crash risk is more salient for firms with weak governance mechanisms, excessive risk-taking behavior, and high information asymmetry between managers and shareholders. Empirical support is provided showing that the relation between short interest and crash risk is driven by bad news hoarding.     

Whose village? Stakeholder interests in the urban renewal of Hubei old village in Shenzhen

This article examines the urban regeneration process of Hubei old village in Shenzen, and focuses on interest sharing among stakeholders. Urban regeneration processes are driven by the decreasing availability of construction land in Shenzhen’s city centre due to rapid urbanization and an unplanned, overcrowded urban core. The solution accepted by most stakeholders, i.e., local government, private developers, and urban villagers, is to generate land revenue through the demolition of urban villages like Hubei old village, thus clearing way for Shenzen’s urban development and transformation. However, tenants and small business operators do not benefit from the rising land and property value, and thus do not share the interests of other stakeholders. A further complication to Shenzen’s urban regeneration process is added by those who do not live in Hubei old village but have vocally fought to preserve its architectural heritage. By examining the urban regeneration process of Hubei old village in Shenzhen, this article provides a case study of the complex dynamics of the Hubei urban regeneration program and participatory planning process, taking as a starting point a question posed by an urban villager during an interview: “whose village?”, i.e., who has the right to make decisions on behalf of the urban village?     

A division of the capitalist class and the market for money capital

In a one‐commodity economy populated by capitalists equipped with equal endowment but with heterogeneous linear production technology, a division of the capitalist class emerges endogenously. The capitalists with relatively weak technology, yielding the profit rate lower than the interest rate, become a money capitalist (lender), whereas the capitalists with relatively strong technology, yielding the profit rate greater than the interest rate, become an industrial capitalist (borrower). The equilibrium interest rate is derived by the associated demand and supply relation. From this setup of the model follow two essential relationships Marx establishes between the average profit rate and the interest rate: (a) that the profit (rate) sets a maximum limit of interest (rate), and (b) that the two rates are correlated in the long‐run. Lastly, the profit rate of financial sector is less than that of industrial sector due to the basic setup of the model where the industrial sector uses leverage to amplify the underlying capital profit rate, whereas the financial sector lacks intermediation technology, which would have enabled it to borrow profitably.     

不同利率对我国上市银行信用风险的影响

对我国16家上市银行进行的实证检验表明：3个月同业拆借利率与银行信用风险显著正相关，人民币5年期基准存款利率与银行信用风险的关系不确定，人民币1年期基准存款利率与银行信用风险显著正相关，贷款利息收入占贷款比例与银行信用风险显著负相关。     

Exchange rate dynamics and US dollar-denominated sovereign bond prices in emerging markets

Using data on Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the Philippines, Russia and Turkey, our empirical results show that the exchange rates of their currencies have adequate explanatory power in explaining their US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, particularly in the post-global financial crisis period. We develop a two-factor pricing model with closed-form solutions for the sovereign bonds in which the correlated factors are foreign exchange rates and US risk-free interest rates that follow a double square-root process relevant in the low interest rate environment. The numerical results and associated error analysis show that the model credit spreads can broadly track the market credit spreads.     

Bringing back Thrift Week: Neo-liberalism and the rediscovery of thrift

The paper examines and compares the movements for promoting working-class savings in the modern USA and in Great Britain in the 19th century. It explores the use of savings as a technology for managing individuals’ behaviour and motives and the nature of the government objectives which are served by these parallel projects.     

Adapting financial rationality: Is a new paradigm emerging?

We discuss the implications of an alternative to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH). The AMH advances a theoretical basis for a new financial paradigm which can better model such phenomena as the recent financial crisis. The AMH regards the financial market order as evolving, tentative and defined by creative destruction in which trading strategies are introduced, mutate to survive, or face abandonment. The concept of investor rationality is less helpful than the distinction between investment strategies which are more or less well adapted to the prevailing market environment. We outline how a more systematic and grounded basis for behavioural finance can be developed in line with the latter approach. Based on this we develop testable hypotheses allowing the AMH to be distinguished from the EMH. Finally, we discuss how the AMH can aid our understanding of important issues in finance. A central insight is that in the survival of richest, as opposed to fittest, implied by the AMH there is much room for misallocation of resources as price and value uncouple. In this shifting financial market order the regulatory State features as a further market in which the vote market verifies or disrupts market conditions.     

利率管制松绑、企业会计信息披露质量与融资约束

已有研究发现,以资本价格——利率为代表的要素市场改革会对企业行为产生重要影响,但这种影响的作用机理如何通过改变资本市场中的信息供求关系予以实现,亟待深入研究。为此,本文以我国2013年央行全面放开利率管制为背景,基于产权性质差异构建双重差分模型,检验利率管制松绑在企业层面的信息溢出效应。研究发现:央行全面放开利率管制不仅有助于促进企业披露高质量的会计信息,还能够缓解企业的融资约束,且企业信息披露质量的提升是导致利率管制松绑降低融资约束的重要渠道。进一步研究发现,对于市场化程度较低地区、R&D投入较高以及短期贷款占比较大的公司,上述信息溢出效应更加显著;另外,利率管制松绑后企业披露高质量的会计信息能够增进投资者的信任,提高信息披露的价值相关性。以上研究结论表明,为应对利率市场化改革带来的机遇与挑战,保障可持续发展,企业会选择主动优化信息环境,来消除信贷市场摩擦,解决“融资难”问题。